For years, our industry braced against forces that seemed determined to write us out of America’s energy future. Anti-fossil fuel rhetoric, policies aimed at forced electrification, and predictions of our demise became background noise. But as I have traveled around attending trade shows, conferences, and board meetings this spring, a renewed sense of optimism about our future persists even with uncertainties over the Middle East conflict and the looming mid-term election.
I believe the worst may be behind us, and that an extraordinary opportunity is now emerging. That opportunity is renewable fuels, which seem poised for an unprecedented rebound thanks to a powerful alignment of federal policy, shifting energy markets, state-level dynamics, and consumer sentiment. If we get this right, it could be the final nail into the coffin of forced electrification.
The economics are the easy part. The federal Renewable Fuel Standard now sets the highest blending volumes in its history, so high that EPA expects renewable diesel and biodiesel production to climb more than 60 percent above last year. Idle plants are firing back up, and the dealers ready to supply that fuel will reap the reward. The timing could hardly be better, given recent turmoil in global oil markets, with experts saying it could take upwards of six months or longer to recover.
We now have Washington firmly on our side. In his second term, President Trump is a full-throated advocate for American biofuels, from record RFS volumes to implementation of the long-delayed 45Z clean fuel production credit. What’s more, in its proposed rule for 45Z, the administration embraced NEFI’s reading of the law to include heating fuels as eligible for the tax credit. We can remain confident that biofuels will continue to have strong policy signals from Washington for at least the next two and a half years, and hopefully longer given the bipartisan support these fuels continue to enjoy. The logistics are easing too, as Jones Act waivers and more rail capacity may help move biofuels to market.
At the same time, the Trump administration has rolled back nearly all Biden-era electrification policies. Even the bluest states are quietly walking back the most aggressive, short-sighted decarbonization plans as affordability concerns become paramount. The same voices that called our industry a relic are rediscovering that a furnace works when the grid does not, and that renewable fuels can achieve the emissions reductions they seek for a fraction of the cost. It is hard not to say, “I told you so.”
Here is the opportunity, and it carries little risk. You do not have to bet your company. Blend, start small, and scale up as the value proves out. These are still your fuels, your trucks, and your customers. Move now and protect the business you built while capturing the upside as it comes. Whatever your size or market, the decision is yours, and NEFI stands ready to help any company that makes it.
We have secured the momentum. It is time to lean in.
