Industry leaders believe renewable fuels will be an important part of the next evolution of energy.
What will the future hold? It’s a question as old as time.
As far as we know, no one has yet found a reliable crystal ball. If they have, they are not sharing it. But that does not stop humankind from thinking about what will come next. Often, we turn to individuals we believe can foretell what may come. No, not a soothsayer in a circus tent, but industry experts who can look at market forces, read political winds, and delve into historical patterns to forecast the probable future.
Oil & Energy reached out to more than two dozen industry experts and asked them all the same question: What do you see as the future for renewable fuels and the delivered fuels industry in the next decade or beyond?
Almost every respondent saw renewable fuels, including biofuel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and ethyl levulinate, as being part of the energy future. Here are their answers.
Jim Collura, President and CEO, National Energy & Fuels Institute
Despite recent political shifts, the pressure to reduce emissions is not going away. The portfolio of solutions, however, is changing. The “electrify everything” movement was oversold, and data center electricity demand is pulling back the curtain.
Affordability and reliability concerns are pushing even the most aggressive blue states toward faster, cheaper answers. At the same time, biofuels are winning support from oil producers, who see them as the answer to electrification. Expect stronger cleaner fuels policy at every level of government. The Trump Administration’s record RFS volumes and renewed talk of clean fuel standards in the Northeast are early evidence. The challenge will be competition for the molecule. Aviation cooled off once the costs came in, but marine fuel is the market to watch.
The answer is more supply and more feedstocks. Ten years out, I expect renewable propane and cellulosic fuels such as Biofine’s ethyl levulinate producing at scale.
Michael Devine, President, National Oilheat Research Alliance
(Excerpted from “The Next Chapter: The Future of Renewable Liquid Heating” on page 30)
Biodiesel will remain a cornerstone of Bioheat®, but it is unlikely to be the industry’s only renewable fuel. Renewable diesel, produced from many of the same feedstocks, offers a drop-in fuel that closely resembles conventional petroleum heating oil. Because it shares many of the same physical properties as petroleum fuels, renewable diesel can complement biodiesel in future heating fuel blends while helping reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.
Looking further ahead, researchers are evaluating additional renewable liquid fuels produced from waste oils, agricultural residues, forest biomass, algae, and other sustainable feedstocks. Rather than relying on a single fuel solution, the liquid heating industry is evolving toward a diversified portfolio of renewable liquid energy sources.
Leslie Anderson, President and CEO, Propane Gas Association of New England
The future of the liquid fuels industry is not about choosing between electricity and propane—it is about delivering the right energy solution for the right application. As renewable propane production expands, our industry has an opportunity to provide lower-carbon energy while utilizing the infrastructure and equipment already serving millions of customers.
At the same time, growing concerns over grid reliability, extreme weather, rising electricity costs, and the challenges heat pumps can face during New England’s coldest winter conditions are creating new opportunities for propane in space heating, backup power, combined heat and power systems, EV charging, and distributed generation. These emerging applications position propane as an essential partner in a more resilient, reliable, and sustainable energy future.
The companies that will thrive over the next decade will embrace innovation, educate consumers and policymakers about propane’s environmental benefits, and continue demonstrating the fuel’s unmatched versatility. Renewable propane, combined with conventional propane’s clean-burning properties, abundant domestic supply, and proven reliability, positions our industry to remain a leader in delivering affordable, dependable, and lower-carbon energy solutions for years to come.
Esther Angell, Executive Director, Women in Energy
I think one of the biggest opportunities for the liquid fuels and LNG industry over the next decade is getting better at connecting with everyday consumers. We spend a lot of time talking about education, but people don’t necessarily want a lesson on energy policy. They want to know what it means for their lives. Will it keep energy affordable? Is it reliable? Will it help support the quality of life they want for their families and communities?
If we can start with those questions instead of trying to explain every technical detail, we’ll have much more meaningful conversations. The demand for liquid fuels and natural gas isn’t disappearing, and the United States is in a strong position with abundant resources and the infrastructure to meet that demand. I believe the future of the industry depends not only on continuing to innovate, but also on helping people understand why these energy sources matter in ways that are relevant to them.
Kevin Beckett, President and CEO, R.W. Beckett Corp.
We, our industry, are the fastest carbon reduction solution for the Northeast, while providing safe, affordable, and reliable heat. We are ready, now!
Therefore, I am optimistic about the future of our industry and the important role we play in an “all-of-the-above” energy solution as the realities of affordability take center stage.
Beckett has taken a systems approach—from tank to flame—to ensure UL-approved solutions for our dealer partners.
Our new training center and intelligent controls will play an important role in supporting workforce readiness and expanding industry capacity.
Rhode Island is leading the way, with Connecticut and New York close behind, creating clear market signals for biofuel demand and demonstrating that the transition to renewable liquid fuels is both practical and achievable.
Yes, I am optimistic and look forward to continuing this journey with my industry friends!
Robert Brown, Owner, Broco Energy
I see the future of renewable fuels being quite positive, especially with federal policies like the 45Z clean fuel production credit and state level adoptions of clean heat standards that support blends of biodiesel and renewable diesel.
The Northeast will see a massive growth spurt in renewable diesel and biodiesel imports due to the New England states adopting clean heat standards, and that will drive an unprecedented scale of renewable fuels into the Northeast for commercial and residential consumer demand.
The transportation industry has a big opportunity with renewable diesel as a drop-in replacement of conventional diesel; which successful pilot programs in New York and Massachusetts transitioned to the first-of-its-kind conventional diesel replacement with renewable diesel contracts. The aviation sector is also implementing sustainability goals, bringing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) into the markets in the Northeast. The future is exciting when you are seeing the domestic producers step up to the plate to support these clean energy initiatives. Renewable fuels will be leading the pack and paving the way for a low-carbon U.S economy.
Mike Cassata, Chief Development Officer, Biofine Group
The future of the renewable fuels industry is highly promising. Several powerful macro trends are driving renewed interest in biofuels, particularly those produced from locally sourced lignocellulosic waste biomass—an abundant resource that is currently costly to manage and dispose of.
Growing strain on the electric grid, rising energy demand, and geopolitical disruptions to global fuel markets have all contributed to increasing energy costs. Expanding the production of locally sourced renewable fuels provides a practical solution by leveraging an existing storage and distribution infrastructure while improving energy security and reducing dependence on imported fuels.
At the same time, both the public and private sectors are increasingly recognizing that advanced biofuels are an essential component of achieving climate objectives. As a result, investment and policy support continue to grow, positioning sustainable biofuels as a critical pathway for reducing carbon emissions, strengthening domestic energy resilience, and helping control long-term energy costs.
Kris DeLair, Executive Director, Empire State Energy Association
Over the past several years, I’ve watched renewable liquid fuels evolve from a promising concept to a proven solution that’s making a real difference today. Looking ahead, I see an even greater opportunity for these fuels to help meet our energy needs while reducing emissions.
From where I sit, the future isn’t about choosing one energy source over another. It’s about giving consumers practical
options that are affordable, reliable, and lower carbon. Renewable liquid fuels stand out because they allow us to build on the infrastructure, equipment, and highly skilled workforce already serving millions of homes and businesses.
Innovation will continue, but one thing won’t change: people will continue to depend on reliable energy. Renewable liquid fuels are well positioned to be part of that future by delivering lower-carbon solutions without asking consumers to replace the systems they already rely on.
Michael Ferrante, President, Massachusetts Energy Marketers Association
Although there remains a level of reluctance by many heating fuel retailers in Massachusetts to embrace renewable liquid fuels as a part of their business model, most likely because of a lack of knowledge of the proven performance of these fuels and market dynamics such as pricing and feedstock availability, I remain very optimistic that the future role of renewable liquid fuels in the northeast heating oil marketplace is secure.
With biofuel mandates in Connecticut, New York and Rhode Island, and voluntary programs such as the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard in Massachusetts that incentivizes biofuel blends in heating oil, expanded use of renewable liquid fuels will occur. Further, a Clean Heat Standard will emerge in Massachusetts in 2028, and the regulation is expected to increase the use of renewable liquid fuels in the thermal sector.
And given the ongoing costs associated with electrification and the fact that renewable fuels are a proven, immediate solution to reducing carbon emissions, policy makers in the key heating oil states are finally realizing the significant role renewable liquid fuels play in easing the impact of climate change.
Finally, the impressive results of NORA’s field study on the use of 100 percent renewable fuels in homes in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania will certainly quiet the naysayers of biofuels and should be an impetus for more marketers to begin offering these fuels.
J.W. Hackett, Senior Director, Advocacy and Public Policy, Global Partners
Over the next decade, sustainability price discovery in the harder-to-abate segments of the economy will shape the future of renewable fuels. Bio-based diesel, renewable diesel (RD), renewable natural gas (RNG), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) are likely to see growing adoption in heavy-duty transportation and equipment, power generation, and thermal applications, as end users look for solutions that are both proven and economically viable. The desire to avoid major capex outlays – especially in a higher cost-of-capital environment – will be a key driver favoring drop-in fuels like RD, RNG, and SAF in particular.
Regional availability will hinge largely on state and local policy: whether a market incentivizes or mandates usage. In regions without such policies, there may be windows where discretionary blending looks attractive, driven by a combination of the federal 45Z tax credit, distillate values, and RFS dynamics. But over time, product will flow in greater volume toward states and cities with clean fuel programs and other mandates and incentives.
Ethanol is the dark horse here. Its low cost, scalability, carbon-intensity reduction potential, and already-ubiquitous market presence make it worth watching. I’d also keep an eye on maritime and export markets as likely destinations for excess supply.
Ted Harris, Executive Vice President, Pennsylvania Petroleum Association
EPA’s recently finalized Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) volumes for 2026 and 2027 established the highest Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) in the program’s history, sending a clear signal that renewable liquid fuels will remain a growing component of America’s energy strategy for years to come. The rule substantially increases renewable diesel and biodiesel volumes while reinforcing long-term viability for domestically produced renewable fuels and the infrastructure that delivers them.
Pennsylvania is particularly well-positioned to capitalize on this growth as more gallons come into the marketplace. For more than 15 years, the Commonwealth’s B2 on-road biodiesel blending requirement has helped build one of the nation’s most established biodiesel distribution networks. Fuel terminals, marketers, transporters, and retailers across Pennsylvania have invested in the infrastructure, logistics, and operational expertise needed to blend and distribute biodiesel efficiently and reliably.
Current federal policy will drive the growth of renewable fuel volumes into next decade. State policy and consumer demand will also play a major factor. From my perspective, I see a liquid fuels industry in Pennsylvania that is well positioned to continue to invest, innovate, and evolve into the future.
Chris Herb, President, Connecticut Energy Marketers Association
CEMA members often tell me that the pace of change in our industry has never been faster. What once took years now happens in months, weeks, or even days. The energy landscape is evolving rapidly, and success will belong to those who embrace innovation rather than resist it.
While we have made remarkable progress with biodiesel blends and the growing availability of renewable diesel, this is only the beginning of our journey. Government-mandated CO2 reductions, competition from electric technology and other fuels, and the unknown breakthroughs to come in the energy sector will require us to continue our fuel revolution.
Rather than view these challenges as obstacles, we should see them as opportunities to lead. Thanks to the groundbreaking research supported by NORA, the ingenuity of equipment manufacturers, and the entrepreneurial spirit of our industry, we are well-positioned to continue to shape the future of liquid fuels. We have reinvented ourselves before, and we will do it again. The future belongs to those who continue to innovate, and our industry is ready to lead the way.
Rocco Lacertosa, Chief Executive Officer, New York State Energy Coalition
Over the past two decades, biofuels—and now renewable diesel—have demonstrated their value in helping states and cities reduce emissions and advance decarbonization goals.
Looking ahead, I believe these fuels will remain an essential part of an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy for the next 20 to 30 years and beyond.
They offer a practical, scalable pathway to lowering greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining reliability for homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure.
Is our industry going away? I do not believe that is the case. In fact, continued pressure on the electric grid makes our role even more important.
Until the grid is expanded and strengthened enough to address instability and peak-demand challenges, liquid fuels will continue to provide needed resilience.
This past winter in New York offered a clear reminder. When temperatures dropped and utilities curtailed natural gas service to certain customers, the region turned once again to the fuel providers who have reliably responded during the most difficult days and nights for decades.
Rich Lyons, President, Carlin Combustion (C. Cowles & Company)
We see liquid fuels continuing to play a significant role in the heating industry for decades to come, but increasingly in the form of renewable, lower-carbon fuels. Just as the industry transitioned to cleaner, ultra-low sulfur heating oil, it is now transitioning to renewable fuels.
Heat pumps face practical headwinds in the Northeast: older homes, high electric rates, cold winters and a large hydronic heating base. Policymakers are slowly recognizing that renewable liquid fuels can provide a faster, more economical path to decarbonization—largely because the heating equipment and infrastructure are already in place. Higher renewable blends may require modest upgrades to some older systems, often costing only a few hundred dollars, versus tens of thousands for other decarbonization approaches.Biodiesel is leading the transition today, with renewable diesel potentially playing a larger role in the future. Mini-splits can efficiently provide air conditioning and shoulder-season heat, while homeowners continue relying on proven liquid-fuel systems and the local dealers who keep them operating reliably through the coldest months.
Tim McLaughlin, Technical Affairs Director, NC Petroleum & Convenience Marketers
I do see a growth in E-15 blends. I have not heard of any B20 or greater blends going in a few years, but maybe It is just our North Carolina market. I expect B5 blends or below will stay strong.
Gasoline and diesel demand remains stable despite the recent influence of electric vehicles and Iran war. Many large C-store chains from up north are moving down here: we are getting a Buc-ees in 2027.
Roger Marran, President, Energy Kinetics, Inc.
There are exciting developments with the growing adoption of biofuels, success with drop in high biodiesel and renewable diesel blends, and the potential of renewable waste‑stream cellulosic fuels like ethyl levulinate that may deliver negative carbon intensity. Layered on top of an ultra‑low‑sulfur heating oil foundation, these advancements show how the fuel supply is rapidly moving into an era of cleaner, more sustainable, and renewable liquid fuels that offer scalable, affordable solutions for consumers, states, and municipalities. These renewable blend, cost‑effective heating options for cold‑climate applications position the industry to remain highly competitive into the next decade and beyond.
Donald Montroy, Vice President of Corporate Strategy, Bergquist, Inc.
Renewable liquid fuels offer our industry a tremendous opportunity. Without them, it will be difficult for our industry to grow and thrive.
To make renewable liquid fuels successful, our entire industry must wholeheartedly embrace their consumption. Every marketer and every employee must advocate for renewable liquid fuels. We should continue discussing the environmental advantages of renewable liquid fuels with legislators. We must be steadfast in discussing these advantages with consumers to increase demand, and work with producers to increase their production. Renewable liquid fuels need to be economically feasible to gain significant traction in the United States.
Renewable liquid fuels have a competitive advantage over conventional energy sources. They’re reliable. They’re produced domestically. They further reduce our carbon footprint. We should feel fortunate renewable liquid fuels are available for us to market to help grow our industry. Let’s embrace renewable liquid fuels and advocate for them with passion.
Paul Nazarro, President, Advanced Fuel Solutions
The next decade belongs to an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy, not an “either-or” approach. Renewable liquid fuels, including biodiesel, renewable
diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and emerging low-carbon biofuels, will play an increasingly important role alongside other technologies.
Success will depend less on inventing new fuels and more on integrating them into existing infrastructure through sound science, collaboration, and supply chain readiness. Our industry has already demonstrated that meaningful carbon reductions can be achieved today by improving the fuels millions of consumers already rely upon.
The future will reward organizations that embrace innovation while remaining practical, ensuring energy remains affordable, reliable, and lower in carbon intensity. The winners won’t be those promoting one technology over another—they’ll be those building partnerships that accelerate scalable, real-world decarbonization solutions for every transportation and heating market.
Joseph R. Sculley, Executive Director, Energy Marketers Association of New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, the future of the liquid renewable fuels market depends on what consumers want. New Hampshire does not have a biofuel blending mandate, like some nearby states do. Consumers are free to work with their home heating fuel dealers to use the type of fuel that best suits their needs. That could be Ultra Low Sulfur heating oil, a biofuel blend, propane, renewable propane, or something else. The New Hampshire motto is Live Free or Die, and both residents and businesses value their ability to make decisions for themselves. I don’t expect that to change any time soon. The energy used to heat homes in New Hampshire will be driven by consumer demand in the private sector.
Gregory Stafstrom, President, Spring Brook Ice & Fuel Service
As a fuel oil retailer for many years, it is exciting to see home heating oil transitioning toward higher bio-blends and net-zero carbon targets. In Connecticut, B10 became standard in July 2025 with higher blends coming in the future. This has led to breakthroughs in fuel cleanliness and heating system technology. The industry appears poised for even more changes and improvement in the upcoming decade and beyond. I would expect the fuel landscape and equipment technology to look much different in the future.
Charlie Summers, President and CEO, Maine Energy Marketers Association
For generations, liquid fuels have been the logical choice for safely, reliably, and affordably heating homes and businesses. That success has never come from standing still—it has come from innovation. From ultra-low sulfur heating oil and high-efficiency equipment to renewable biodiesel blends and advanced burner technology, our industry has continuously evolved to deliver cleaner, more efficient energy solutions.
Today, extensive research by organizations like the National Oilheat Research Alliance (NORA) is helping accelerate the development and adoption of renewable, low-carbon liquid fuels that can reduce emissions while utilizing the infrastructure already in place. That means cleaner energy without sacrificing reliability or requiring costly system replacements.
Our industry has always believed in free markets, consumer choice, and practical solutions—not one-size-fits-all mandates. As America’s energy needs continue to evolve, liquid fuels will remain an essential part of a diverse energy portfolio, strengthening energy security, supporting local economies, and providing dependable, lower-carbon heating for Maine and the nation for decades to come.
Leo Verruso, General Manager, Advanced Fuel Solutions
The future of renewable liquid fuels isn’t about replacing liquid fuels; it’s about improving them. Over the next decade, I expect biodiesel, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and other low-carbon liquid fuels to continue gaining market share because they leverage the infrastructure, equipment, and workforce already in place. Success, however, will depend on more than simply increasing renewable content. Fuel quality, storage, handling, and preventative maintenance will become increasingly important as renewable fuels evolve. Companies that embrace a holistic approach that includes treating fuel as a managed asset rather than a commodity will see the greatest benefits in reliability, emissions reduction, and operating costs. The future belongs to organizations that combine innovation with operational excellence, ensuring renewable fuels deliver on their environmental promise while meeting the performance expectations of today’s equipment owners.
Steve Walsh, NEFI Chairperson; Owner, Davis Oil & Propane
The future of renewable fuels in the delivered fuels industry is bright. Credit must be given to NORA, Clean Fuels Alliance America, and all of the equipment manufacturers for putting us in such a strong position for the future ahead. We must continue to do our part in educating people that our industry has a drop-in solution to lowering GHG emissions.
Our thanks go out to each of these very busy professionals who took the time to provide their thoughtful responses.
