2025-2026 Winter Weather Outlook

NEFI’s new weather service provides an early forecast for the heating season.

BAM Weather, NEFI’s new weather service, has provided Oil & Energy with their Winter Weather Outlook for the upcoming heating season. Detailed, real-time information is available through the Members Area at NEFI.com. Members also receive weekly weather outlooks and storm alerts as needed.

Official Monthly Outlooks: December, January

• La Niña will continue to play a role into winter, but North Pacific Ocean temperatures will also play a role.
• Favoring colder air building north in December with warmer air south. Colder air will then bleed eastward into January with milder air in the Western US.
• Pattern will start active with impactful winter events in December before trending drier in January.

Official Seasonal Outlooks: December, January, February

Temperatures will show similarities in the overall pattern to last winter, but less North Atlantic blocking will favor warmer risks on the East Coast and colder air bottled in the North Central U.S. This leads to slightly lower Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (GWHDDs) compared to 2024-2025.

Precipitation: The storm track will be similar to last winter, but slightly wetter thanks to the southeast U.S. ridge/warmth influence. This should favor more impactful winter storms into the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Energy Focus: Short-Term

Energy Focus: Long-Term

Energy Focus: Winter Indicators

Winter Focus: Long Term

La Niña and North Atlantic Ocean temperatures favor an active pattern in the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley.

Clashing of cold air masses north, and warmth southeast, will favor big winter storms in the Midwest with a “Boom or Bust” pattern from Chicago to Nashville, with a fine line between big snows, ice, and rain.

NEFI members can access more weather information by logging in to the Members Area on NEFI.com. Members have been provided with log in credentials for the Weather Service link. If you are a member who has not received these credentials, or would like to learn more about membership, contact membercom@nefi.com.

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